Georgia SoS Runoff Modeler — FCRP Election Integrity

The May 19 GOP primary produced three distinct voter blocs. Experience (Fleming + Sterling) represents the experience-first, establishment wing — 51.2% of primary voters. Combat (Jones + Metz) represents the fight-first, MAGA wing — 32.9%. Swing (King) was the reform-minded, substantive middle — 15.9%, and the bloc that now holds the balance of power in the runoff.

Experience · Fleming + Sterling · 435,540 Combat · Jones + Metz · 280,001 Swing · King · 135,734

May 19 Primary Results

Tim Fleming 39.2% · 333,854 votes

Gabe Sterling 12.0% · 101,686 votes

Experience total: 51.2% · 435,540 votes

Vernon Jones 27.3% · 232,310 votes

Ted Metz 5.6% · 47,691 votes

Combat total: 32.9% · 280,001 votes

Kelvin King — the swing 15.9% · 135,734 votes

Swing: 15.9% · 135,734 votes

Model the Outcome of the Runoff

Load a scenario or adjust the sliders manually.

King voters going to Jones (Combat) 50%

King was the reform-minded, substantive candidate — his 135,734 voters are the decisive swing bloc. Where do they go in the runoff? We start at 50/50, the most neutral assumption. King voters who break toward Combat return at the Combat turnout rate; those who break toward Experience return at the Experience rate.

20% — King breaks Experience 80% — King breaks Combat

Experience turnout 40%

% of Fleming + Sterling primary voters returning June 16. Establishment coalitions historically run lower in runoffs. Georgia SoS data: average runoff drop exceeds 60%.

25% (low)65% (high)

Combat turnout 50%

% of Jones + Metz primary voters returning June 16. Motivated base voters historically return at higher rates. The 10-point gap vs. Experience reflects this documented pattern.

25% (low)65% (high)

Projected Runoff Result

Experience — Fleming

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Combat — Jones

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Margin

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Fleming Jones

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How to read this model: Default settings reflect Georgia's historical runoff patterns — roughly 40–50% of primary voters return statewide, with motivated base voters returning at higher rates than establishment coalitions. A review of Georgia Secretary of State data covering 17 runoffs over 20 years found an average turnout drop exceeding 60%. This is an analytical tool, not a prediction. The core finding holds across reasonable assumptions: this runoff is competitive, and King's 135,734 voters are the deciding factor.

Early voting opens June 8. Election day is June 16.